Simulation and Optimization using Crystal Ball

Crystal Ball is a spreadsheet-based analytical application which extend the power of spreadsheets for predictive modeling, forecasting, simulation and optimization. More than 85 percent of fortune 500 use this simulation tool for solving critical problems and identify critical factor that affecting risk.

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Risk Analysis Software

Did you know, what are the critical factors in your Business that are affecting risk?

Are your still following the intuitive business decision making to drive your business and expecting it to lead the business landscape which is getting competitive like never before. 21st Century is an era of Information Age, where everything is dependent on Business related information you posses. Beyond that, the real success depends on capability to analyze the Data and Information related to Business.

Often as a business enterprise, you are dealt with various risk analysis and risk management tasks. What are all those critical factors that affect risk and subsequently your business decision, it is very important to get clear picture about the same? With ever increasing Data and Business Information, you can no more depend and take decision on your Institutions. Definitely, Risk Analysis and Business Analytics are the solution for such challenges in Business decision making.

How Risk Analysis Software – Oracle Crystal Ball can be helpful?

Before discussion benefits of Risk Analysis Software, I want to write down few things which financial analysts, consultants, business managers, business analysts and business analyst are dealt with on day to day basis:-

a. “WHAT IF” Risk Analysis: On daily bases, it’s the responsibility of analysts to find out critical factors that can affect risk. What is we opt in Project A instead of Project B? What if I create Warehouse at Location A instead of Location B? These are important questing to be answered to decide.

b. Forecasting: It is a very broad term, it could be related to project planning, material requirement, business sales performance, manufacturing, budgeting etc. It is very critical to forecast precisely, the future requirements and scenario, in order to plan well in advance and minimize the risk associated with uncertainties.

c. Correlated Assumption: We have to find out extent of dependencies on various factors and how much it can affect our performance.

d. Constraint Based Performance: We have to identify and measure the affect on performance under set of defined constraints.

It takes lot of time if we start manually calculating by applying all the mathematical and statistical analysis techniques, rather there is maximum possibility that we shy away investing time in calculations and get strayed away by intuitive and behavioral decision making which in comparison to analytics, is less precise and less certain.

Benefits of Oracle Crystal Ball Risk Analysis Software:-

Forecasting with Crystal Ball makes your decision 95% certain using following techniques:-

• Advanced mathematical functions e.g. forecasts, budgets, project plans, order quantities etc.

• Constraint based decision optimizer

• Simulation using real historical data

• Identify Risk & business drivers

Insight of Oracle Crystal Ball – Risk Analysis Software:-

FEATURE	BENEFIT
Monte Carlo Simulation	Does: Calculates multiple scenarios of a spreadsheet model automatically
	Benefits: Frees users from the constraints of estimates and best-guess values
Distribution Gallery	Does: Provides an intuitive interface for selecting model input variables; includes 16 discrete and continuous distributions plus custom distribution
	Benefits: Simplifies the quantifying of risk, means you don't have to enter the distribution formula into Excel
Categories of Distributions	Does: Create predefined distributions, modify your existing distributions and organize them using custom categories
	Benefits: Create your own library of distributions, organized in categories. Re-use distributions from one project to the next
Publish and Subscribe Feature for Categories	Does: Publish categories and share with many users
	Benefits: Work as a team sharing models and data to get your work done faster
Process Capability Features	Does: Define spec limits (LSL, USL and Target) in your forecasts; calculate capability metrics and view simulation results and metrics together in one split-view chart.
	Benefits: With capability metrics in Crystal Ball you simplify your workflow and better integrate simulation into your Six Sigma and Quality methodology
Forecast Charts	Does: Graphically display simulation results and statistics
	Benefits: Allows users to track and analyze thousands of possible outcomes; charts are interactive
Split-View charts	Does: View forecast charts, descriptive statistics and capability metrics side-by-side on the same chart. Enable up to 6 charts and tables in one view
	Benefits: One chart tells the whole story
Sensitivity and Tornado Analyses	Does: Two separate methods for identifying the most critical model input variables
	Benefits: Enable users to focus on high-risk model input variables
Distribution Fitting	Does: Uses historical data for defining assumptions
	Benefits: Allows users to customize model input variables based on real-world results
Correlation	Does: Models dependencies between uncertain input variables
	Benefits: Provides more accurate modeling and forecasting
Charting and Reporting	Does: Automates report generation, includes the ability to overlay forecasts and to project trends through time
	Benefits: Creates clear analysis and presentation of all forecasts, improves communication with colleagues, management, and clients
Precision Control	Does: Provides advanced simulation capabilities
	Benefits: Increases simulation accuracy and flexibility; saves time
Latin Hypercube Sampling	Does: Alternative simulation method to Monte Carlo
	Benefits: Samples regularly across distribution, excellent for simulations with restriction on number of trials
Data extraction	Does: Exports data from Crystal Ball memory
	Benefits: Allows users to examine individual simulation results and transfer results to other software programs
CB Tools	Does: Macro-driven tools that use Crystal Ball; Includes scenario analysis, decision table, tornado chart, correlation matrices, 2D-simulation, batch fit, and boot strap
	Benefits: Automates modeling processes with effortless and powerful tools
Microsoft Certification	Does: Certified Excel macro provider
	Benefits: Eliminates security concerns

Binary Semantics is pioneer in India for DATA ANALYSIS Products, Solutions and Consulting across industries and applications. We represent some of the largest software providers in the world for Statistical Analysis & Data Mining, Business Intelligence, Six Sigma Data Analysis, Risk Analysis and Simulation, Optimization Solutions, and Econometrics.

Data Analysis Software Solutions and Risk Assessment Tools

Data Analysis Software Solutions and Risk Assessment Tools: 

Statistical analysis refers to a collection of methods used to process large amounts of data and report overall trends. It provides ways to objectively report on how unusual an event is based on historical data.

It is required in Risk analysis, Optimization, Six Sigma, CMMI, Financial analysis, Forecasting and almost everywhere, even in our day to day life. With statistics involved in our analysis we can be sure of our results/reports etc.

If we have small data then we can manually perform statistical tests, simulation, time series forecasting, clustering, data mining, modelling etc.

But this is not always the case. So for getting insight into our data and get the more out of it, which is of importance to us, we use Statistical analysis software.

Below are the software which covers all Basic and Advanced Statistics and help us get the best solution of our problem:-

Risk Analysis & Simulation:-

Oracle Crystal Ball & Decision Optimizer :

It is simplest and most complete tool for Monte-Carlo simulations, time-series forecasting and constraints-based optimization for Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and models.

Crystal Ball automatically calculates thousands of different “what if” cases, saving the inputs and results of each calculation as individual scenarios. Analysis of these scenarios reveals the range of possible outcomes, their probability of occurring, which input has the most effect on your model and where you should focus your efforts.

Optimization :-

What’s Best :

What's Best! Is an add-in to Excel that allows you to build large scale optimization models in a free form layout within a spreadsheet? What’s Best! combines the proven power of Linear, Nonlinear (convex and no convex/Global), Quadratic, Quadratic ally Constrained, Second OrderCone, Stochastic, and Integer optimization with Microsoft Excel.

LINGO :

LINGO is a comprehensive tool designed to make building and solving Linear, Nonlinear (convex & nonconvex/Global), Quadratic, Quadratically Constrained, Second Order Cone, Stochastic, and Integer optimization models faster, easier and more efficient. It can connect to any Database.

LINDO API :

With the LINDO API, you can easily create your own optimization applications. It allows you to plug the power of the LINDO solvers right into customized applications and mathematical programs that you have written.

Statistical Modeling:-

TIBCO Spotfire S+:

With S+, statisticians and statistical programmers can apply, prototype and deploy statistical models and predictive analytics up to five times faster than with competing modelling environments. S+ is the only commercially-supported statistical analysis software that delivers a

cross-platform IDE for the award-winning S programming language, the ability to analyse gigabyte class data sets on the desktop, and a package system for sharing, reuse and deployment of analytics in the enterprise and in validated environments.

SPSS :

IBM SPSS Statistics is an integrated family of products that addresses the entire analytical process, from planning to data collection to analysis, reporting and deployment. With more than a dozen fully integrated modules to choose from, you can find the specialized capabilities you need to increase revenue, outperform competitors, conduct research and make better decisions.

Data Mining & BI :-

SAS :

SAS is an integrated system of software products which enables programmers to perform:

Retrieval, data management, and data mining,

Report writing and graphics

Statistical analysis

Business planning, forecasting, and decision support

Operations research and project management

Quality improvement

Applications development

Data warehousing (extract, transform, load)

Platform independent and remote computing

In addition, SAS has many business solutions that enable large-scale software solutions for areas such as IT management, human resource management, financial management, business intelligence, customer relationship management and more.

TIBCO Spotfire :

TIBCO Spotfire Professional makes it easy to build and deploy reusable analytic applications over the web. Or perform pure ad-hoc analytics, driven on-the-fly by your own knowledge, intuition, and desire to answer the next question. Spotfire analytics does all this by letting you interactively query, visualize, aggregate, filter, and drill into datasets of virtually any size. Ultimately you will reach faster insights with Spotfire and bring clarity to business issues or opportunities in a way that gets all the decision makers on the same page quickly.

Econometrics:-

Eviews :

A combination of power and ease-of-use make EViews the ideal package for anyone working with time series, cross-section, or longitudinal data. With EViews, you can quickly and efficiently manage your data, perform econometric and statistical analysis, generate forecasts or model simulations, and produce high quality graphs and tables for publication or inclusion in other applications.

LIMDEP:

LIMDEP is an integrated program for estimation and analysis of linear and nonlinear models, with cross section, time series and panel data. LIMDEP has provided many recent innovations including cutting edge techniques in panel data analysis, frontier and efficiency estimation and discrete choice modeling.

NLOGIT :

NLOGIT is an extension of LIMDEP that provides programs for estimation, model simulation and analysis of multinomial choice data, such as brand choice, transportation mode, and all manner of survey and market data in which consumers choose among a set of competing alternatives. NLOGIT has become the premier package for estimation and simulation of multinomial discrete choice models.

SHAZAM :

Shazam is easy-to-use, comprehensive programmable software package for econometrics. The primary strength of Shazam lies in the estimation & testing of many types of regression models.

Quality – Six Sigma & CMMI :-

Sigma XL:

A powerful but easy to use Excel Add-In, that will enable you to Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control your  service, transactional, and manufacturing processes. This is the perfect tool for Six Sigma® Green Belts, Black Belts, Quality and Business Professionals, Engineers, and Managers. SigmaXL is a fraction of the cost of any major statistical product, yet it has all the functionality most professionals need.

JMP:

Discover Dynamic Data Visualization. Discover Things You Never Expected. Statistical discovery software that’s fast, powerful and totally interactive.

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